பட்டதாரி திரும்ப விகிதம்Graduate Return Index (GRI)
Descriptive ratio of N-E-origin graduates currently in N-E civilian administration, against total N-E-origin graduates of working age.
GRI(t) = (N-E-origin graduates currently in N-E civilian administration roles at time t) / (total N-E-origin graduates of working age at time t)
§1What it measures
GRI formalises the structural objection that demilitarisation alone replaces troops with vacuum — there is no civilian administration for N-E graduates to enter, so they leave or do not return. The index is bounded 0..1; a higher value means more N-E-origin graduates are working in N-E civilian administration.
GRI is descriptive, not predictive. It is an aggregation device for existing University Grants Commission (UGC) and district secretariat / provincial council establishment data — anyone can compute it from the same sources.
§2Inputs & sources
Persons whose secondary-education school of record is in the Northern or Eastern Province AND whose current verified employment is a civilian post in district secretariat, divisional secretariat, provincial council, statutory commission, university administration, or local government within the Northern or Eastern Province. Military, police, and security-service posts are NOT counted.
- ◇District Secretariat establishment lists (publicly gazetted)
- ◇Provincial Council establishment lists (Northern, Eastern)
- ◇University Grants Commission (UGC) graduate-tracer records
Persons whose secondary-education school of record is in the Northern or Eastern Province AND who have completed a recognised tertiary qualification AND are aged 22–64 at time t. Includes those resident outside the N-E (incl. Colombo, abroad) and unemployed.
- ◇University Grants Commission (UGC) — graduate output by district of origin
- ◇World Bank WPS 8355 (Newhouse & Silwal, Feb 2018) — N&E labour-market baseline
- ◇World Bank N&E Socio-Economic Assessment (April 2018, AUS0000106)
- ◇University of Peradeniya — district youth-unemployment record (Kilinochchi 20.3%, Mannar 17%, Jaffna 13%, Vavuniya 11.7%, Mullaitivu 11.1%, Northern Province avg 14.5%)
§3Worked reading
The qualitative pattern documented across all named sources is asymmetric: Northern Province graduates are concentrated in non-N-E cities (Colombo, abroad) or in unemployment, while civilian-administration posts in the N-E are partially staffed and largely Sinhala-medium. GRI formalises this as a ratio.
TLTE never publishes its own number. The model is a publication device for the existing UGC, district secretariat, and World Bank registries — anyone can compute GRI from the same sources.
If UGC + district secretariat data show GRI converging on the all-island ratio of graduates-in-public-administration, the graduate-displacement branch of the Vadakkilangai argument is rebutted. Independent evaluation showing the model misrepresents the underlying CBSL / UGC data would also rebut.