கட்டமைப்பு கணிதம்Structural Mathematics
Five named, falsifiable models that formalise the structural argument: Impunity Ratio, Power-Asymmetry Index, Trust-Decay Curve, Demographic-Displacement Function, Narrowing Function. Each model is a definition plus an explicit non-claim. The mathematics layer is descriptive, not predictive — it makes the qualitative argument auditable, not forecastable.
- · Descriptive, not predictive. None of the five models is a forecast. They are auditable summaries of the documented record.
- · Falsifiable, not faith-based. Each model has an explicit falsifier — a condition under which it is rebutted by future Sri Lankan state action.
- · Sourced, not derived. Every input variable resolves to a Tier-A external citation. There are no internal-only TLTE numbers in any model.
- · Aggregation only, never scoring. The models do not rank, score, or risk-rate any individual, settlement, or institution.
- · No proprietary index. PAI, IR, TDC, DDF, NF are publication-equivalent; the formulas are open and any researcher can recompute them from the cited sources.
Impunity Ratio (IR)
IR(t) = (credible findings unprosecuted at time t) / (total credible findings at time t)
A 'credible finding' is restricted to those issued by UN treaty bodies, OHCHR investigative mechanisms, the UN Panel of Experts (2011), the OHCHR OISL (2015), or by a competent domestic commission (LLRC, Paranagama, Udalagama) and subsequently endorsed by an independent international source.
'Unprosecuted' means no completed criminal proceeding leading to conviction or acquittal on the merits. Disciplinary action, administrative transfer, and parliamentary debate do not count.
Falsifier: if at any time t, IR(t) → 0 through completed prosecutions, the model is rebutted. The Sri Lankan state can falsify this model at any time by closing it.
Power-Asymmetry Index (PAI)
PAI = w₁·MS + w₂·PS + w₃·CV
MS = ratio of state military-and-policing personnel deployed in the Northern and Eastern Provinces to civilian population in the same provinces. Sources: SIPRI, IISS, Adayaalam observations.
PS = ratio of parliamentary seats held by Tamil-mandated parties (TNA, ITAK, ACTC, EPRLF-V) to seats required for a constitutional veto under the 1978 Constitution.
CV = constitutional-veto coefficient: 0 (no veto), 1 (effective veto over constitutional amendment affecting language, devolution, or accountability).
Weights w₁, w₂, w₃ are documentation choices, not empirical claims. The model's value is in tracking direction over time, not absolute level.
Trust-Decay Curve T(t)
T(t) = T₀ · exp(−λ·t), where λ increases discretely at each documented commitment-default event
T₀ is a reference point set at the 1987 Indo-Lanka Accord. Each subsequent documented default (1989 IPKF withdrawal without 13A implementation; 2003 P-TOMS collapse; 2010 LLRC non-implementation; 2020 30/1 co-sponsorship withdrawal) increases λ by a documented step.
T(t) is dimensionless. It is a structured way to make 'why don't Tamils trust the Sri Lankan state's commitments?' an auditable question rather than a sentiment claim.
Demographic-Displacement Function D(r, t)
D(r, t) = (Tamil-majority Grama Niladhari divisions in region r at time t) / (Tamil-majority GN divisions in region r at t₀)
r = Northern or Eastern Province district. t₀ = 1981 census (the last full pre-conflict census of the Northern and Eastern provinces).
Sources: Department of Census & Statistics; PEARL 2024 (land report); Oakland Institute; ICG.
D(r, t) < 1 indicates demographic narrowing of Tamil-majority administrative divisions in region r relative to the 1981 baseline.
Narrowing Function N(t)
N(t) = | { viable constitutional pathways attempted and not yet closed at time t } |A 'viable constitutional pathway' is one of: (a) a negotiated pact (B-C 1957, D-C 1965); (b) a devolution package (13A 1987, Chandrika 1995, 2000 draft); (c) an internationally-backed mechanism (CFA 2002, UNHRC 30/1 2015); (d) a domestic accountability mechanism (LLRC, OMP).
'Closed' means formally abrogated, formally withdrawn, or unimplemented for more than ten years with no implementation roadmap. The Narrowing Timeline (§ 02) is the source list.
N(2026) under this counting rule is 0. The model is falsified if any closed pathway is reopened with an implementation roadmap and a measurable timeline.
Religious-Incitement Function (RIF)
RIF(t) = (documented majoritarian-incitement events with no ICCPR Act §3 prosecution at time t) / (total ICCPR Act §3 prosecutions at time t)
Numerator: events recorded by ICG, OHCHR (Shaheed A/HRC/43/48/Add.2, 2020), Verité, HRCSL and Hashtag Generation as meeting the ICCPR Art 20(2) threshold (advocacy of religious hatred constituting incitement) directed at Muslim, Christian, Tamil-Hindu or Hill-Country-Tamil targets, where no ICCPR Act §3 charge against named instigators followed.
Denominator: all prosecutions filed under §3 of the ICCPR Act No. 56 of 2007 in the relevant period, with target community recorded. Public registry maintained by HRCSL, CPA and Article 19 briefings.
Falsifier: if the Sri Lankan state initiates and completes ICCPR Act §3 prosecutions against named instigators of documented majoritarian-incitement events on a scale comparable to its minority-directed prosecutions, RIF moves toward parity and the enforcement-gap branch of the religion-state argument is rebutted.