மக்கள் இடப்பெயர்வு செயல்பாடுDemographic-Displacement Function D(r, t)
Tamil-majority Grama Niladhari division composition in region r, indexed to the 1981 census.
D(r, t) = (Tamil-majority GN divisions in region r at time t) / (Tamil-majority GN divisions in region r at t₀)
§1What it measures
DDF is the most-restricted of the five models in scope. It measures one thing: administrative composition of Grama Niladhari divisions at province / district level, indexed to a published baseline.
It is not a population-displacement claim. It is not a count of individuals moved. It is not a claim about any named settlement. It is a public-record audit of how administrative composition of Tamil-majority units has changed against a defined baseline.
§2Inputs & sources
Northern Province district or Eastern Province district. The model is not reported for individual GN divisions, individual villages, or individual settlements (see refusals).
- ◇Department of Census & Statistics, Sri Lanka — district administrative boundaries
1981 census — the last full pre-conflict census of the Northern and Eastern provinces. The 2012 census is a successor reference but is itself a post-conflict snapshot and is reported alongside, not in place of, t₀.
- ◇Census of Population and Housing, Sri Lanka — 1981 and 2012
Counts of GN divisions in which Tamil-speakers form a numerical majority at the relevant census or post-census enumeration. Where Tier-A independent enumeration is unavailable, the cell reports the gap rather than substituting an estimate.
- ◇PEARL — Erased: A Demographic Report on the North-East (2024)
- ◇Oakland Institute — Endless War (2024)
- ◇International Crisis Group — Sri Lanka country series
§3Worked reading
In several Eastern Province divisions D(r, t) sits well below 1.0 against the 1981 baseline. In several Northern Province divisions the figure is closer to 1.0 but with documented internal change in division-by-division composition that the index alone does not capture — see PEARL and Oakland reporting for the qualitative reading.
The point of the model is to make the underlying administrative-record question — has the unit-of-administration composition of Tamil-majority districts been preserved relative to a pre-conflict baseline? — citation-bound rather than rhetorical.
If subsequent Tier-A enumeration shows D(r, t) returning to or exceeding 1.0 across a sustained census cycle, the demographic branch of the structural argument is rebutted in that region.