Movement Three · eight falsifiable functions

The Contained Fire

அடக்கிய தீ

Fire held in an open palm is still fire. It is simply accountable for where it goes. Eight functions, each with a falsification condition printed beside it.

இப்போது · Now (Aarambam)

Grievance cannot be audited. A function can. Each of the eight models below states its inputs, its Tier-A sources, its current reading, and the observation that would break it.

None of them forecast. None of them score a person, a village, or a community. Several are deliberately capped at province level so they cannot be repurposed as targeting instruments.

The pañcakṛtya frames the set: five acts on one body, one sentence. Analogy · not identity.

ஆகுதல் · Becoming (Nilaiththanmai)

Independent replication. Every model published with its data so a hostile statistician can rerun it and publish a different number.

A model that has been falsified and retracted in public — that is the maturity marker this archive is waiting to earn.

Peer citation of at least one function in an academic or treaty-body context.

Eight falsifiable functions

Impunity Ratio

I(t)

தண்டனையின்மை விகிதம்

I(t) = U(t) / F(t)

Of every credible accountability finding on the record, what share has never reached a completed criminal proceeding on the merits.

தண்டனை பெறாத நம்பகமான கண்டறிதல்கள், மொத்த கண்டறிதல்களுக்கு எதிராக.

U(t)	Tier-A findings unprosecuted at time t	count
F(t)	Total distinct Tier-A findings at time t	count

Fig. IR — Impunity Ratio. Era-marked, not date-marked.

Provenance: UN Panel of Experts 2011 · OHCHR OISL 2015 · A/HRC/46/20 · A/HRC/51/5 · A/HRC/57/6 · LLRC 2011 · Paranagama 2014
Reading · Aarambam: ≈ 1.0 — zero command-level prosecutions on the merits
Falsification condition: Completed prosecutions on the merits drive I(t) toward 0. The domestic-remedy branch of the case is then withdrawn.

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Power-Asymmetry Index

PAI

சக்தி சமநிலையின்மைக் குறியீடு

PAI = log₁₀ ( C_state / K_minority )

The log ratio of state coercive capacity to minority collective capacity, at province resolution only.

அரசின் கட்டாயத் திறனுக்கும் சிறுபான்மையின் கூட்டுத் திறனுக்கும் இடையிலான மடக்கை விகிதம்.

C_state	Deployed security personnel and budget in-province	index
K_minority	Civil-society, legal, and representative capacity	index

Fig. PAI — Power-Asymmetry Index. Era-marked, not date-marked.

Provenance: IISS Military Balance · Jane's · CBSL budget series · province-level civil-society registries
Reading · Aarambam: Province-level only · never per-village, never per-person
Falsification condition: Verified demilitarisation returning the ratio below the published threshold falsifies the asymmetry claim for that province.

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Trust-Decay Curve

T(t)

நம்பிக்கை சிதைவு வளைவு

T(t) = T₀ · e^(−λ·n(t))

Exponential decay of institutional trust per abrogated pact, anchored on the Indo-Lanka Accord.

ஒவ்வொரு மீறப்பட்ட உடன்படிக்கைக்கும் பின் நம்பிக்கையின் அடுக்குக் குறைவு.

T₀	Baseline trust at the anchor pact	index
λ	Decay constant fitted to the pact record	per pact
n(t)	Count of abrogated pacts by time t	count

Fig. TDC — Trust-Decay Curve. Era-marked, not date-marked.

Provenance: Indo-Lanka Accord 1987 · Banda–Chelva 1957 · Dudley–Chelva 1965 · 13th Amendment implementation record · ICG reporting
Reading · Aarambam: Anchored 1987 · monotonic decline, no recovery event recorded
Falsification condition: A pact honoured in full over a full electoral cycle produces a recovery term the current curve does not contain.

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Demographic-Displacement Factor

DDF

இட மாற்றக் காரணி

DDF = g_NE / g_national

North-East population growth measured against the national baseline across the census series.

வடகிழக்கு மக்கள்தொகை வளர்ச்சி, தேசிய அடிப்படைக்கு எதிராக.

g_NE	North-East compound growth rate	% p.a.
g_national	National compound growth rate	% p.a.

Fig. DDF — Demographic-Displacement Factor. Era-marked, not date-marked.

Provenance: Census of Ceylon / Sri Lanka 1911, 1921, 1931, 1946, 1953, 1963, 1971, 1981, 2012
Reading · Aarambam: Census-bounded · 1911 → 2012 · no post-2012 enumeration exists
Falsification condition: A complete post-war census showing DDF ≈ 1 across the North-East falsifies the displacement reading.

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Narrowing Function

N(t)

சுருங்கும் வழிச் சார்பு

N(t) = | { d ∈ D : open(d, t) } |

The count of non-secessionist constitutional pathways still open at time t.

பிரிவினையற்ற அரசியலமைப்பு வழிகளில் இன்னும் திறந்திருப்பவை எத்தனை.

D	Enumerated constitutional pathways	set of 22
open(d,t)	Pathway available without punitive cost at t	boolean

Fig. NF — Narrowing Function. Era-marked, not date-marked.

Provenance: Citizenship Act 1948 · Official Language Act 1956 · 1972 & 1978 Constitutions · Sixth Amendment 1983 · 13th Amendment record
Reading · Aarambam: N(2026) = 0 under the published rule
Falsification condition: One pathway reopening without loss of seat, liberty, or livelihood raises N(t) above zero and this book is wrong in the reader's favour.

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Religious-Incitement Enforcement Gap

RIF

தூண்டுதல் அமலாக்க இடைவெளி

RIF = 1 − ( E / R )

The enforcement gap between reported incitement and enforcement action under ICCPR Art 20 and ICERD Art 4. An audit of the state's duty, never a count of opinion.

ICCPR 20 / ICERD 4 கடமைகளுக்கு எதிரான அமலாக்க இடைவெளி — கருத்துக் கணக்கு அல்ல.

R	Incidents reported to competent bodies	count
E	Enforcement actions recorded	count

Fig. RIF — Religious-Incitement Enforcement Gap. Era-marked, not date-marked.

Provenance: HRCSL · Centre for Policy Alternatives · Verité Research · Hashtag Generation · ICCPR Act No. 56 of 2007
Reading · Aarambam: Enforcement-gap only · never an opinion count, never a community characterisation
Falsification condition: Recorded enforcement rising to parity with reported incidents closes the gap and retires the model.

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Graduate Return Index

GRI

பட்டதாரி திரும்பல் குறியீடு

GRI = R_NE / (G_NE · ρ)

The share of North-East graduates who return to work in the region. Descriptive, not predictive.

வடகிழக்கு பட்டதாரிகளில் எத்தனை பேர் ஊருக்குத் திரும்பிப் பணியாற்றுகிறார்கள். விவரிப்பு மட்டுமே.

G_NE	North-East graduate output	count p.a.
R_NE	Graduates in recorded regional employment	count p.a.
ρ	Absorption capacity adjustment	ratio

Fig. GRI — Graduate Return Index. Era-marked, not date-marked.

Provenance: University Grants Commission Sri Lanka · CBSL labour series · World Bank development indicators
Reading · Aarambam: Descriptive · not predictive · has been misread as predictive at least once
Falsification condition: Regional employment records showing return at parity with national retention falsify the outflow reading.

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Coercion Ceiling

ΚK(t)

கட்டாய உச்ச வரம்பு

K(t) = max( s ∈ S : in_force(s, t) )

The statutory coercion ceiling in force at time t, read across the PTA, its successors, and the ICCPR Act.

காலப்போக்கில் அமலில் இருந்த கட்டாயச் சட்டங்களின் உச்ச வரம்பு.

S	Statutes conferring coercive power	set
in_force(s,t)	Statute in force at t	boolean

Fig. COERCION — Coercion Ceiling. Era-marked, not date-marked.

Provenance: Prevention of Terrorism Act No. 48 of 1979 · proposed PSTA/ATA successors · ICCPR Act No. 56 of 2007 · UK Terrorism Act 2000 for comparison
Reading · Aarambam: Ceiling: ICCPR Act 2007 · PTA repeal announced repeatedly, not completed
Falsification condition: Full repeal of the PTA with no successor of equal reach lowers the ceiling and the model records it.

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What is not yet true

01No model in this set has yet been independently replicated.
02Several inputs are annual national statistics with known collection problems in the North-East; the models inherit those problems and say so on each page.
03GRI is descriptive, not predictive, and has been misread as predictive at least once. The book restates the limit rather than removing the model.

Next movement

The Refusals

strike
படைப்பு
hold
காப்பு
release
அழிப்பு
press
மறைப்பு
lift
அருள்

strike · hold · release · press · lift — analogy, not identity