Civilian Risk Indicators

Renamed from "Civic Forecast". A published table of Tier-A indicators an MP, journalist or UN rapporteur can audit in one page.

Now · Aarambam

Indicator categories are published here. Each desk page carries the verbatim Tier-A entries. No proprietary scoring. No forecasts. Two-Archon sign-off before any entry surfaces.

Becoming · Nilaiththanmai

A live aggregator on this page, drawing from unmai_pattern_signals, unmai_demil_ledger and the Citations Registry — still aggregation only, never scoring.

Live aggregator — Tier A, verbatim

Latest verbatim entries from unmai_pattern_signals and unmai_demil_ledger. No scoring, no ranking — pure aggregation in reverse chronological order.

budget· National· Treasury of Sri Lankaera day 504
2025 Budget allocates LKR 432 billion to the Ministry of Defence — roughly 10% of total expenditure of LKR 4,218 billion.
Source ↗
troops· North-East· UN Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rightsera day 504
High Commissioner Volker Türk calls on Sri Lanka to reduce military presence in the Northern and Eastern provinces and release land to rightful owners without further delay.
Source ↗
troops· North-East· International Crisis Groupera day 504
ICG Sri Lanka briefings repeatedly document military footprint in the North-East as a structural barrier to reconciliation.
Source ↗
sinhalisation· Trincomalee· Oakland Instituteera day 504
Trincomalee Under Siege — Sinhalisation and military land alienation, Jan 2023 – Mar 2024.
Source ↗
sinhalisation· North-East· PEARL Actionera day 504
Structural Sinhalisation baseline across the N-E (2022).
Source ↗
other· Sri Lanka· UN Committee on Enforced Disappearancesera day 504
CED/C/LKA/RQ/1 — Sri Lankan state replies to list of issues on enforced disappearances (31 Jul 2025).
Source ↗
other· International· ITJPera day 504
ITJP has submitted 60+ sanctions packages on Sri Lankan accountability.
Source ↗
remittance· Sri Lanka· World Bank KNOMADera day 504
World Bank KNOMAD reports inward worker remittance to Sri Lanka at ≈ $5.6–6B per year in recent reporting years.
Source ↗
remittance· Sri Lanka· Central Bank of Sri Lankaera day 504
Central Bank of Sri Lanka publishes monthly worker remittance data by source country — UK, Italy, Canada, France and Australia are individually visible.
Source ↗
economy· Sri Lanka· IMFera day 504
IMF Article IV consultations on Sri Lanka show structural foreign-exchange dependency on diaspora remittance flows.
Source ↗
diaspora· International· International Crisis Groupera day 504
ICG report "Sri Lanka: The Tamil Diaspora and Politics" (2010) remains the canonical reference for diaspora→homeland economic flow.
Source ↗

Indicator categories — all Tier-A

01
Demilitarisation pace
Anchors: OHCHR base-footprint findings · Adayaalam Centre research
Open the desk →
02
Enforced-disappearance backlog
Anchors: OHCHR OISL 2015 · UN WGEID · ITJP · PEARL
Open the desk →
03
Press-freedom posture
Anchors: RSF World Press Freedom Index · CPJ killed-journalists database · UNESCO Observatory · OHCHR A/HRC/60/21
Open the desk →
04
Surveillance & transnational repression
Anchors: OHCHR A/HRC/60/21 · Freedom House Transnational Repression report · Citizen Lab Report #151 + #180
Open the desk →
05
Land return
Anchors: OHCHR · PEARL · Oakland Institute
Open the desk →
06
Diaspora-economy stress
Anchors: World Bank KNOMAD · CBSL · IMF · ICG
Open the desk →
07
CRSV — deference layer
Anchors: OHCHR Jan 2026 "We Lost Everything" · Global Survivors Fund · PEARL
Open the desk →

The audit contract — every indicator

✓Source is Tier A (UN body, OHCHR, named credentialed NGO with public methodology).
✓Quote is verbatim, or a structural paraphrase explicitly marked.
✓Date of the originating publication is shown.
✓Source URL is linked.
✓Archive snapshot (web.archive.org) is captured.
✓Two-Archon sign-off before any new indicator is published.

If any of these is missing, the indicator is not published.

What we will never do

·Never a forecast. We make no predictions.
·Never a score. We do not assign numeric risk grades.
·Never a probability output. No "high / medium / low" with proprietary weighting.
·Never a watchlist. No individual is ever named in an indicator.
·Never original analysis. We aggregate, we cite, we link. We do not synthesise.

A proprietary risk score could be weaponised against TLTE as evidence of an "intelligence operation". Aggregation-only is what makes the indicators defensible in any forum.

Doctrine overview Open Citations Registry →

Anchor sources

Stable citation IDs in the tlte-cite: namespace. Each link resolves to a permanent record at docs.tlte.cloud/cite/<slug> with title, publisher, archive URL, and reuse guidance.

Tier A — primary

Legal Foundation

UCP Standards

Continue in Civic Protection Doctrine

Civic Protection Doctrine· குடியியல் பாதுகாப்புக் கோட்பாடு

Diaspora's civilian evidence + standards layer that strengthens the case for international accountability. Not a UN substitute.

Legal Foundation

UK Terrorism Act §12/13, ICCPR, OHCHR resolutions, Berkeley Protocol, UCP precedent.

UCP Standards & Curriculum

Nonviolent Peaceforce UCP Manual + Felicity Gray ANU thesis + Murad Code. Standards page, not deployment.

Cyber Layer

TLTE's own NCSC Cyber Essentials baseline. Routes at-risk to Access Now and Citizen Lab. No op-sec on public site.