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  1. Civic Protection Doctrine
  2. Civilian Risk Indicators
Civilian Risk Indicators
Civic Protection Doctrine
Aggregation contract · Phase 1

Civilian Risk Indicators

Renamed from "Civic Forecast". A published table of Tier-A indicators an MP, journalist or UN rapporteur can audit in one page.

Now · Aarambam

Indicator categories are published here. Each desk page carries the verbatim Tier-A entries. No proprietary scoring. No forecasts. Two-Archon sign-off before any entry surfaces.

Becoming · Nilaiththanmai

A live aggregator on this page, drawing from unmai_pattern_signals, unmai_demil_ledger and the Citations Registry — still aggregation only, never scoring.

Live aggregator — Tier A, verbatim

Latest verbatim entries from unmai_pattern_signals and unmai_demil_ledger. No scoring, no ranking — pure aggregation in reverse chronological order.

  • budget· National· Treasury of Sri Lankaera day 504

    2025 Budget allocates LKR 432 billion to the Ministry of Defence — roughly 10% of total expenditure of LKR 4,218 billion.

    Source ↗
  • troops· North-East· UN Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rightsera day 504

    High Commissioner Volker Türk calls on Sri Lanka to reduce military presence in the Northern and Eastern provinces and release land to rightful owners without further delay.

    Source ↗
  • troops· North-East· International Crisis Groupera day 504

    ICG Sri Lanka briefings repeatedly document military footprint in the North-East as a structural barrier to reconciliation.

    Source ↗
  • sinhalisation· Trincomalee· Oakland Instituteera day 504

    Trincomalee Under Siege — Sinhalisation and military land alienation, Jan 2023 – Mar 2024.

    Source ↗
  • sinhalisation· North-East· PEARL Actionera day 504

    Structural Sinhalisation baseline across the N-E (2022).

    Source ↗
  • other· Sri Lanka· UN Committee on Enforced Disappearancesera day 504

    CED/C/LKA/RQ/1 — Sri Lankan state replies to list of issues on enforced disappearances (31 Jul 2025).

    Source ↗
  • other· International· ITJPera day 504

    ITJP has submitted 60+ sanctions packages on Sri Lankan accountability.

    Source ↗
  • remittance· Sri Lanka· World Bank KNOMADera day 504

    World Bank KNOMAD reports inward worker remittance to Sri Lanka at ≈ $5.6–6B per year in recent reporting years.

    Source ↗
  • remittance· Sri Lanka· Central Bank of Sri Lankaera day 504

    Central Bank of Sri Lanka publishes monthly worker remittance data by source country — UK, Italy, Canada, France and Australia are individually visible.

    Source ↗
  • economy· Sri Lanka· IMFera day 504

    IMF Article IV consultations on Sri Lanka show structural foreign-exchange dependency on diaspora remittance flows.

    Source ↗
  • diaspora· International· International Crisis Groupera day 504

    ICG report "Sri Lanka: The Tamil Diaspora and Politics" (2010) remains the canonical reference for diaspora→homeland economic flow.

    Source ↗

Indicator categories — all Tier-A

  • 01
    Demilitarisation pace

    Anchors: OHCHR base-footprint findings · Adayaalam Centre research

    Open the desk →
  • 02
    Enforced-disappearance backlog

    Anchors: OHCHR OISL 2015 · UN WGEID · ITJP · PEARL

    Open the desk →
  • 03
    Press-freedom posture

    Anchors: RSF World Press Freedom Index · CPJ killed-journalists database · UNESCO Observatory · OHCHR A/HRC/60/21

    Open the desk →
  • 04
    Surveillance & transnational repression

    Anchors: OHCHR A/HRC/60/21 · Freedom House Transnational Repression report · Citizen Lab Report #151 + #180

    Open the desk →
  • 05
    Land return

    Anchors: OHCHR · PEARL · Oakland Institute

    Open the desk →
  • 06
    Diaspora-economy stress

    Anchors: World Bank KNOMAD · CBSL · IMF · ICG

    Open the desk →
  • 07
    CRSV — deference layer

    Anchors: OHCHR Jan 2026 "We Lost Everything" · Global Survivors Fund · PEARL

    Open the desk →

The audit contract — every indicator

  • ✓Source is Tier A (UN body, OHCHR, named credentialed NGO with public methodology).
  • ✓Quote is verbatim, or a structural paraphrase explicitly marked.
  • ✓Date of the originating publication is shown.
  • ✓Source URL is linked.
  • ✓Archive snapshot (web.archive.org) is captured.
  • ✓Two-Archon sign-off before any new indicator is published.

If any of these is missing, the indicator is not published.

What we will never do

  • ·Never a forecast. We make no predictions.
  • ·Never a score. We do not assign numeric risk grades.
  • ·Never a probability output. No "high / medium / low" with proprietary weighting.
  • ·Never a watchlist. No individual is ever named in an indicator.
  • ·Never original analysis. We aggregate, we cite, we link. We do not synthesise.

A proprietary risk score could be weaponised against TLTE as evidence of an "intelligence operation". Aggregation-only is what makes the indicators defensible in any forum.

Doctrine overviewOpen Citations Registry →

Anchor sources

Stable citation IDs in the tlte-cite: namespace. Each link resolves to a permanent record at docs.tlte.cloud/cite/<slug> with title, publisher, archive URL, and reuse guidance.

Tier A — primary
  • Unarmed Civilian Protection Manual, 2nd ed.tlte-cite:ucp-manual-2021
    Nonviolent Peaceforce with UNITAR · Nonviolent Peaceforce / UNITAR (2021)

    Recognised civilian-protection discipline, co-developed with the UN training arm. TLTE references; never deploys.

  • Berkeley Protocol on Digital Open Source Investigationstlte-cite:berkeley-protocol-2022
    OHCHR + UC Berkeley Human Rights Center · United Nations / UC Berkeley (2022)

    International standard for OSINT-as-evidence. TLTE adopts chain-of-custody, hash + timestamp + source-archive on every Unmai artefact.

  • Murad Code — Global Code of Conduct for Investigating and Documenting Conflict-Related Sexual Violencetlte-cite:murad-code
    Institute for International Criminal Investigations / Nadia's Initiative · Murad Code Project (2022)

    Survivor-centred conduct standard. TLTE never takes survivor testimony — but references the Code so partners can audit our deference posture.

  • A Different Kind of Weapon — Unarmed Civilian Protection and the Politics of Protectiontlte-cite:gray-anu-2023
    Felicity Gray · Australian National University, PhD thesis (2023)

    Peer-reviewed academic anchor for civilian-led protection as a distinct, evidenced discipline.

  • Psychological & Emotional War — the human cost of digital transnational repressiontlte-cite:citizen-lab-psychological-2022
    Citizen Lab · Munk School, University of Toronto (2022)

    Peer-cited evidence of digital transnational repression affecting diaspora communities. TLTE's threat-model anchor.

  • No Escape — the gendered dimensions of digital transnational repressiontlte-cite:citizen-lab-no-escape-2024
    Citizen Lab · Munk School, University of Toronto (2024)

    Gendered dimensions of transnational digital repression. Co-anchor for the Cyber Layer.

  • Mitigating cyber threats with limited resources — guidance for civil societytlte-cite:cisa-ncsc-cse-2024
    CISA + NCSC-UK + CSE-Canada (joint advisory) · Cybersecurity & Infrastructure Security Agency (May 2024)

    Tier-A government baseline for civil-society cyber defence. TLTE's own posture aligns to this.

  • Cyber Essentials — UK government baselinetlte-cite:ncsc-cyber-essentials
    National Cyber Security Centre (UK) · NCSC

    TLTE's published cyber baseline as a UK CIC.

  • Digital Security Helplinetlte-cite:access-now-helpline
    Access Now · Access Now

    Recognised global civil-society digital-safety partner. TLTE routes at-risk individuals here; never gives op-sec on the public site.

  • University Teachers for Human Rights (Jaffna) — reports 1988 onwardstlte-cite:uthr-jaffna
    UTHR(J) — Rajan Hoole, Daya Somasundaram, Rajani Thiranagama, K. Sritharan · UTHR(J)

    The Tamil precedent for evidence-layer-not-armed-actor. Rajani Thiranagama's 1989 assassination is the historical anchor for why this work matters.

  • Permanent People's Tribunal on Sri Lanka — Dublin Sessiontlte-cite:peoples-tribunal-dublin-2010
    Permanent People's Tribunal · PPT, Dublin (January 2010)

    Civil-society tribunal precedent as a stage that precedes — and strengthens the case for — international accountability.

  • About Apple threat notifications and protecting against mercenary spywaretlte-cite:apple-threat-notifications
    Apple · Apple Support

    Vendor-published threat-notification programme. TLTE routes at-risk users to enrol; never advises on tooling itself.

  • University Teachers for Human Rights (Jaffna) — UTHR(J) — successive bulletins and reportstlte-cite:uthrj-reports
    University Teachers for Human Rights (Jaffna) · UTHR(J) — uthr.org

    Contemporaneous Tamil-side human-rights documentation through the conflict period, published at significant personal cost to the authors. UTHR(J) documented violations by the Sri Lankan state, by the IPKF (1987–1990), and by armed Tamil organisations — a triple-independence posture that the case file treats as the historical reference for non-state, non-armed, contemporaneous civic documentation. Cited extensively by OHCHR OISL, ICG, Amnesty, and the academic literature.

  • The Broken Palmyra — The Tamil Crisis in Sri Lankatlte-cite:uthr-broken-palmyra
    Hoole, Somasundaram, Sritharan, Thiranagama (UTHR(J)) · Sri Lanka Studies Institute (1990); UTHR(J) Reports 1–14

    Standing Tamil-civilian human-rights record covering IPKF abuses, intra-Tamil killings, LTTE suppression of dissent, EPDP and Karuna-faction collaboration with Sri Lankan security forces. Canonical Tier-A Tamil-civilian source for the period. Rajani Thiranagama was assassinated 21 Sep 1989 — publicly recorded; UTHR(J) honours her legacy.

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Civic Protection Doctrine· குடியியல் பாதுகாப்புக் கோட்பாடு
Diaspora's civilian evidence + standards layer that strengthens the case for international accountability. Not a UN substitute.
Legal Foundation
UK Terrorism Act §12/13, ICCPR, OHCHR resolutions, Berkeley Protocol, UCP precedent.
UCP Standards & Curriculum
Nonviolent Peaceforce UCP Manual + Felicity Gray ANU thesis + Murad Code. Standards page, not deployment.
Cyber Layer
TLTE's own NCSC Cyber Essentials baseline. Routes at-risk to Access Now and Citizen Lab. No op-sec on public site.
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