title: Maths of the dossier — history-of-scholarship visualisation slug: case/ravana-and-the-origin-story/maths summary: Four structural visualisations that make the dossier's findings numerically legible — Textual Stratigraphy Fractional Matrix (pan-recension attestation by kāṇḍa from the Baroda apparatus); Trincomalee Demographic Sankey (1827 → 2012 census flows); Koneswaram Erasure Timeline (1622 → 2024 institutional density); Kubera Silence Index (Rāvaṇa vs. Kubera named episodes across ~14 revival texts). History of scholarship, not divination. No prediction. Reduced-motion accessible. Deterministic per era-week seed. order: 212

Maths of the dossier

History-of-scholarship visualisation

Route: /case/ravana-and-the-origin-story/maths Following the Caste / Navagraha maths precedent. No divination. No prediction. No individual claim.

Refusal block (mandatory)

This page publishes four structural visualisations that make the dossier's findings numerically legible. It is history-of-scholarship visualisation, not:

• prediction of individual behaviour or outcome;
• adjudication of contested identity claims;
• computation of restitution figures;
• probability of Tamil Eelam recognition;
• forecast of demographic trajectories.

Every chart on this page is deterministic per era-week seed (same rule as Caste maths at /caste/maths). Reduced-motion fallback renders a single static frame at the seed and stops animating; every element remains clickable, every screen-reader label intact.

Chart 1 · Textual Stratigraphy Fractional Matrix

What it shows. For each of the seven kāṇḍas of the Vālmīki Rāmāyaṇa, the fractional pan-recension attestation rate from the Baroda Critical Edition apparatus (Bhatt et al., 1958–75). The matrix renders the philological finding of /case/ravana-and-the-origin-story/valmiki-stratigraphy in one grid: Bāla and Uttara have the weakest pan-recension consensus; Books II–VI form the "core Vālmīki".

Overlay: the Uttarakāṇḍa Sargas 9–11 Kubera-usurpation narrative is plotted separately for cross-recension consistency — showing that even within the late Uttarakāṇḍa, the Kubera episode is uniformly attested (see /case/ravana-and-the-origin-story/kubera-reveal).

Data source. Baroda Critical Edition apparatus (vols. I–VII, 1958–75), with corroboration from Brockington 1984 linguistic strata.

Chart 2 · Trincomalee Demographic Sankey

What it shows. Area-proportional flow of Trincomalee District population between the three principal recorded communities (Tamil, Sinhala, Muslim) across five census points: 1827 · 1911 · 1946 · 1981 · 2012. The Tamil block collapses from 82% to 32%; the Sinhala block rises from 1% to 27%; the Muslim block remains relatively stable.

Data source. Ceylon / Sri Lanka Census reports (1827 colonial census; 1911, 1946, 1981, 2012 Department of Census and Statistics); 82% figure and 32% figure verified via Oakland Institute, Trincomalee Under Siege, September 2024, p. 3.

Refusal. The chart does not predict future demographic shifts. It documents the recorded past. It does not attribute causation to any single actor; the causal analysis lives in /case/ravana-and-the-origin-story/koneswaram-spine.

Chart 3 · Koneswaram Erasure Timeline

What it shows. A single-axis timeline of institutional density at the Koneswaram / Fort Frederick promontory across four centuries. Marked events:

Data source. Queirós, Conquista, Perera trans. 1930; Balendra 1953/2003; Oakland Institute 2024; PTF gazette 2020.

Chart 4 · Kubera Silence Index

What it shows. For each of ~14 primary revival texts on either side of the modern Ravana dispute, a bar chart comparing the count of named Rāvaṇa episodes vs. the count of named Kubera episodes. The bar chart makes the mutual suppression visually undeniable.

Texts sampled (both sides):

Sinhala-Hela side:

1. Cumaratunga, Subasa essays (1939–44 selection)
2. Ahubudu, The Story of the Land of the Sinhalese (2012 English trans.)
3. Obesekera, Ravana, King of Lanka (2013)
4. Obesekera, Ravana Amaraniyai
5. Ravana Balaya public statements (2013–15 corpus)
6. TV Derana Ravana teledrama episode synopses

Tamil-Dravidian side: 7. Periyar, Irāmāyaṇa Pāttiraṅkaḷ (c. 1930–44) 8. Pulavar Kuḻantai, Irāvaṇa Kāviyam (1946)

Meta-analytic corpus: 9. Vālmīki Uttarakāṇḍa Sargas 9–14 (Goldman & Sutherland Goldman 2017) — the control: this is where Kubera IS named 10. Kamban, Irāmāvatāram — for reference (Tamil bhakti control) 11. Cilappatikāram references (5th–6th c. CE) — Kubera as dikpāla filler 12. Maṇimēkalai references (5th–6th c. CE) — Kubera as Buddhist cosmological prop 13. Taṭcaṇa Kayilāca Purāṇam (16th c.) — Rāvaṇa as Śaiva devotee; Kubera not named 14. Periya Purāṇam (Cēkkiḻār, c. 1135 CE) — for reference

Expected finding. Modern revival texts on both sides show high Rāvaṇa counts and near-zero Kubera counts. Ancient and medieval texts show varied but non-zero Kubera presence — particularly the Uttarakāṇḍa (where Kubera is central) and Cilappatikāram / Maṇimēkalai (where he is cosmological structure).

Load-bearing implication. The Kubera Silence in modern revival texts is not accidental — it is structurally required by both nationalisms (see /case/ravana-and-the-origin-story/kubera-reveal).

Determinism

The seed for any randomised visualisation elements (chart animations, ordering within equal-count categories) is the era-week index — Math.floor(Date.now() / (7 * 86400 * 1000)). Two readers loading /case/ravana-and-the-origin-story/maths in the same calendar week see identical charts. This is by design: civilisational mnemonics must be reproducible, not random.

Reduced-motion fallback

When the operating system reports prefers-reduced-motion: reduce, each chart renders a single static frame at the seed and stops animating. All labels, tooltips, and clickable regions remain intact.

Data honesty

• Chart 1 rests on the Baroda apparatus (Tier-A critical edition); the fractional attestation rates are derived from published apparatus data, not fabricated.
• Chart 2 rests on Ceylon / Sri Lanka Census reports (state statistical records) and Oakland Institute 2024.
• Chart 3 rests on Queirós (perpetrator primary source), Balendra (Tier-A monograph), and Oakland Institute 2024.
• Chart 4 rests on published texts whose episode counts are reproducible by any reader with library access.

No data point on this page has been invented. Where a specific count is provisional (e.g., total Sargas in a specific Baroda vol. edition), the chart displays a range or a provisional badge.

Refusal

This is not divination. TLTE casts no horoscope on the dossier's findings. The maths make the dossier's Tier-A evidence numerically legible. They do not predict the outcome of any real-world contest, they do not assign a probability to Tamil Eelam recognition, and they do not adjudicate an individual's ethnicity, ancestry, or belonging.

The maths are visualisation of the register at /case/ravana-and-the-origin-story/citation-register. That register is the primary evidentiary spine; these charts are its secondary presentation.