The Diaspora-Axis Self-Amplification

Post-2009 the SL security apparatus pivoted to monitoring diaspora organisations (OHCHR A/HRC/57/19, Aug 2024). Sri Lanka obtained 96 Interpol Red Notices by 2014, repeatedly reviewed by Interpol's Commission for the Control of Files. The UKUT 2021 ruling (KK and RS) formally recognised sur-place activity as a return-risk factor.

1. 01
   Jun 2024Confirmed · Tier-A source

   POAC rejected TGTE's application to de-proscribe the LTTE but found 'several errors' by the Home Secretary in the 2021 review.

2. 02
   Mar 2025Confirmed · Tier-A source

   UK imposed first-ever SAMLA sanctions on individuals responsible for civil-war-era violations.

3. 03
   Aug 2025Confirmed · Tier-A source

   UK Home Office CPIN v9: tone changed in Colombo, security apparatus operationally unchanged.

4. 04
   Aug 2025Confirmed · Tier-A source

   CTID 7-hour interrogation of Tamil photojournalist — near-simultaneous with CPIN v9 publication.

5. 05
   Jan 2026Credible report · Tier-B

   Interpol leaks (Disclose) name Sri Lanka among states exploiting Red Notices against diaspora activists.

6. 06
   Feb 2026Confirmed · Tier-A source

   OHCHR PSTA comments: PSTA's overbroad definitions could criminalise diaspora advocacy.

The system has a self-amplifying property. Diaspora sur-place activity generates SL intelligence collection; that intelligence is presented in host-state asylum tribunals; the tribunals codify the activity as risk-generating; protection strengthens; activity continues. The Kumanan / CPIN v9 near-simultaneity (Aug 2025) is the clearest evidence of the coupling.

A(t+1) = A(t) + g · ( Surveillance(t) − Risk_relief(t) )
  g > 1 ⇒ self-amplifying; observed g > 1 since 2021

The system amplifies advocacy when surveillance outpaces meaningful risk relief. Reform tone without apparatus change keeps g above one.

What proportion of UK / Canadian / Swiss Tamil asylum claims since 2021 have cited sur-place evidence sourced from SL intelligence? Has any Western state requested disclosure of SL surveillance methods via mutual legal assistance?